Euro (EUR) is at a crowded short extreme. Everyone who wanted to be short already is, so short covering would have no natural counterparty. Note the corollary: selling into a crowd this short removed the one-week edge entirely in our tests, even when the chart looked right.
The weekly change is still moving in the same direction as the net position — the crowd is adding, not unwinding. Positioning that accelerates late is penalised: −1.45% over the following 8 weeks (t = −2.8) in our sample.
| Week | Net position | Change vs prior week |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | -63,256 | -10,922 |
| 2026-09-22 | -52,334 | -25,341 |
| 2026-09-15 | -26,993 | +15,623 |
| 2026-09-08 | -42,616 | -17,691 |
| 2026-09-01 | -24,925 | +11,427 |
| 2026-08-25 | -36,352 | +22,736 |
| 2026-08-18 | -59,088 | +922 |
| 2026-08-11 | -60,010 | -1,919 |
| 2026-08-04 | -58,091 | +14,356 |
| 2026-07-28 | -72,447 | -31,109 |
| 2026-07-21 | -41,338 | -28,733 |
| 2026-07-14 | -12,605 | +3,622 |
| 2026-07-07 | -16,227 | -17,326 |
| 2026-06-30 | +1,099 | -29,059 |
| 2026-06-23 | +30,158 | -4,195 |
| 2026-06-16 | +34,353 | +20,421 |
| 2026-06-09 | +13,932 | -34,934 |
| 2026-06-02 | +48,866 | +19,440 |
| 2026-05-26 | +29,426 | -4,087 |
| 2026-05-19 | +33,513 | -6,687 |
| 2026-05-12 | +40,200 | +7,998 |
| 2026-05-05 | +32,202 | -3,510 |
| 2026-04-28 | +35,712 | -5,612 |
| 2026-04-21 | +41,324 | +15,306 |
| 2026-04-14 | +26,018 | +33,559 |
| 2026-04-07 | -7,541 | -8,048 |
| 2026-03-31 | +507 | -8,772 |
| 2026-03-24 | +9,279 | -11,853 |
| 2026-03-17 | +21,132 | -84,012 |
| 2026-03-10 | +105,144 | -31,354 |
| 2026-03-03 | +136,498 | -20,358 |
| 2026-02-24 | +156,856 | -17,624 |
| 2026-02-17 | +174,480 | -5,825 |
| 2026-02-10 | +180,305 | +16,944 |
| 2026-02-03 | +163,361 | +31,227 |
| 2026-01-27 | +132,134 | +20,439 |
| 2026-01-20 | +111,695 | -20,961 |
| 2026-01-13 | +132,656 | -30,156 |
| 2026-01-06 | +162,812 | +5,347 |
| 2025-12-30 | +157,465 | -2,426 |
| 2025-12-23 | +159,891 | +14,988 |
| 2025-12-16 | +144,903 | +6,115 |
| 2025-12-09 | +138,788 | +30,335 |
| 2025-12-02 | +108,453 | +14,382 |
| 2025-11-25 | +94,071 | -4,936 |
| 2025-11-18 | +99,007 | +25,418 |
| 2025-11-10 | +73,589 | -18,206 |
| 2025-11-04 | +91,795 | -15,538 |
| 2025-10-28 | +107,333 | -4,419 |
| 2025-10-21 | +111,752 | +3,427 |
| 2025-10-14 | +108,325 | -10,040 |
| 2025-10-07 | +118,365 | +996 |
| 2025-09-30 | +117,369 | +3,024 |
| 2025-09-23 | +114,345 | -3,414 |
| 2025-09-16 | +117,759 | -7,918 |
| 2025-09-09 | +125,677 | +6,085 |
| 2025-09-02 | +119,592 | -3,447 |
| 2025-08-26 | +123,039 | +4,294 |
| 2025-08-19 | +118,745 | +3,314 |
| 2025-08-12 | +115,431 | -528 |
| 2025-08-05 | +115,959 | -7,400 |
| 2025-07-29 | +123,359 | -2,156 |
| 2025-07-22 | +125,515 | -2,706 |
| 2025-07-15 | +128,221 | +7,625 |
| 2025-07-08 | +120,596 | +13,059 |
| 2025-07-01 | +107,537 | -3,598 |
| 2025-06-24 | +111,135 | +9,582 |
| 2025-06-17 | +101,553 | +8,528 |
| 2025-06-10 | +93,025 | +10,261 |
| 2025-06-03 | +82,764 | +3,290 |
| 2025-05-27 | +79,474 | +5,021 |
| 2025-05-20 | +74,453 | -10,321 |
| 2025-05-13 | +84,774 | +9,055 |
| 2025-05-06 | +75,719 | -78 |
| 2025-04-29 | +75,797 | +10,769 |
| 2025-04-22 | +65,028 | -4,252 |
| 2025-04-15 | +69,280 | +9,300 |
| 2025-04-08 | +59,980 | +8,145 |
| 2025-04-01 | +51,835 | -13,690 |
| 2025-03-25 | +65,525 | +6,100 |
| 2025-03-18 | +59,425 | +46,335 |
| 2025-03-11 | +13,090 | +23,196 |
| 2025-03-04 | -10,106 | +15,319 |
| 2025-02-25 | -25,425 | +25,995 |
| 2025-02-18 | -51,420 | +13,005 |
| 2025-02-11 | -64,425 | -5,811 |
| 2025-02-04 | -58,614 | +7,990 |
| 2025-01-28 | -66,604 | -4,118 |
| 2025-01-21 | -62,486 | -2,089 |
| 2025-01-14 | -60,397 | +3,727 |
| 2025-01-07 | -64,124 | +5,440 |
| 2024-12-31 | -69,564 | -1,057 |
| 2024-12-24 | -68,507 | -2,612 |
| 2024-12-17 | -65,895 | +9,678 |
| 2024-12-10 | -75,573 | -18,084 |
| 2024-12-03 | -57,489 | -1,480 |
| 2024-11-26 | -56,009 | -13,452 |
| 2024-11-19 | -42,557 | -35,120 |
| 2024-11-12 | -7,437 | +14,216 |
| 2024-11-05 | -21,653 | +28,651 |
| 2024-10-29 | -50,304 | -21,780 |
| 2024-10-22 | -28,524 | -45,674 |
| 2024-10-15 | +17,150 | -21,948 |
| 2024-10-08 | +39,098 | — |
Educational data reference, not investment advice. Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (public dataset).