Japanese Yen (JPY) is at a crowded long extreme. That is stored fuel for a downside squeeze, but crowding alone is never a reason to trade against it — in our testing, extremes without a change in direction simply persist. What converts fuel into a move is the weekly change flipping sign.
The weekly change is still moving in the same direction as the net position — the crowd is adding, not unwinding. Positioning that accelerates late is penalised: −1.45% over the following 8 weeks (t = −2.8) in our sample.
| Week | Net position | Change vs prior week |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | +120,359 | +109,563 |
| 2026-09-08 | +10,796 | +103,023 |
| 2026-09-01 | -92,227 | -28,929 |
| 2026-08-25 | -63,298 | -10,405 |
| 2026-08-18 | -52,893 | -10,808 |
| 2026-08-11 | -42,085 | +3,388 |
| 2026-08-04 | -45,473 | +117,939 |
| 2026-07-28 | -163,412 | -11,287 |
| 2026-07-21 | -152,125 | -29,462 |
| 2026-07-14 | -122,663 | +1,115 |
| 2026-07-07 | -123,778 | +31,314 |
| 2026-06-30 | -155,092 | -8,988 |
| 2026-06-23 | -146,104 | +4,028 |
| 2026-06-16 | -150,132 | -4,314 |
| 2026-06-09 | -145,818 | -16,251 |
| 2026-06-02 | -129,567 | -14,900 |
| 2026-05-26 | -114,667 | -20,762 |
| 2026-05-19 | -93,905 | -18,803 |
| 2026-05-12 | -75,102 | -13,364 |
| 2026-05-05 | -61,738 | +40,321 |
| 2026-04-28 | -102,059 | -7,599 |
| 2026-04-21 | -94,460 | -11,252 |
| 2026-04-14 | -83,208 | +10,534 |
| 2026-04-07 | -93,742 | -20,870 |
| 2026-03-31 | -72,872 | -10,066 |
| 2026-03-24 | -62,806 | +4,974 |
| 2026-03-17 | -67,780 | -26,393 |
| 2026-03-10 | -41,387 | -24,812 |
| 2026-03-03 | -16,575 | -28,114 |
| 2026-02-24 | +11,539 | -1,416 |
| 2026-02-17 | +12,955 | +32,061 |
| 2026-02-10 | -19,106 | +116 |
| 2026-02-03 | -19,222 | +14,711 |
| 2026-01-27 | -33,933 | +10,896 |
| 2026-01-20 | -44,829 | +335 |
| 2026-01-13 | -45,164 | -53,979 |
| 2026-01-06 | +8,815 | -5,253 |
| 2025-12-30 | +14,068 | +12,845 |
| 2025-12-23 | +1,223 | +4,165 |
| 2025-12-16 | -2,942 | -20,390 |
| 2025-12-09 | +17,448 | -18,970 |
| 2025-12-02 | +36,418 | +9,901 |
| 2025-11-25 | +26,517 | -4,640 |
| 2025-11-18 | +31,157 | -17,319 |
| 2025-11-10 | +48,476 | -2,789 |
| 2025-11-04 | +51,265 | -16,850 |
| 2025-10-28 | +68,115 | -2,299 |
| 2025-10-21 | +70,414 | +33,248 |
| 2025-10-14 | +37,166 | -9,141 |
| 2025-10-07 | +46,307 | -15,158 |
| 2025-09-30 | +61,465 | -18,035 |
| 2025-09-23 | +79,500 | +18,089 |
| 2025-09-16 | +61,411 | -30,232 |
| 2025-09-09 | +91,643 | +18,385 |
| 2025-09-02 | +73,258 | -11,226 |
| 2025-08-26 | +84,484 | +6,903 |
| 2025-08-19 | +77,581 | +3,347 |
| 2025-08-12 | +74,234 | -7,772 |
| 2025-08-05 | +82,006 | -7,237 |
| 2025-07-29 | +89,243 | -17,402 |
| 2025-07-22 | +106,645 | +3,063 |
| 2025-07-15 | +103,582 | -12,573 |
| 2025-07-08 | +116,155 | -11,183 |
| 2025-07-01 | +127,338 | -4,939 |
| 2025-06-24 | +132,277 | +1,400 |
| 2025-06-17 | +130,877 | -13,718 |
| 2025-06-10 | +144,595 | -6,554 |
| 2025-06-03 | +151,149 | -12,863 |
| 2025-05-27 | +164,012 | -3,318 |
| 2025-05-20 | +167,330 | -4,938 |
| 2025-05-13 | +172,268 | -4,591 |
| 2025-05-06 | +176,859 | -2,353 |
| 2025-04-29 | +179,212 | +1,398 |
| 2025-04-22 | +177,814 | +5,959 |
| 2025-04-15 | +171,855 | +24,788 |
| 2025-04-08 | +147,067 | +25,293 |
| 2025-04-01 | +121,774 | -3,602 |
| 2025-03-25 | +125,376 | +2,412 |
| 2025-03-18 | +122,964 | -10,938 |
| 2025-03-11 | +133,902 | +251 |
| 2025-03-04 | +133,651 | +37,671 |
| 2025-02-25 | +95,980 | +35,411 |
| 2025-02-18 | +60,569 | +5,954 |
| 2025-02-11 | +54,615 | +35,847 |
| 2025-02-04 | +18,768 | +19,727 |
| 2025-01-28 | -959 | +13,714 |
| 2025-01-21 | -14,673 | +14,738 |
| 2025-01-14 | -29,411 | -9,222 |
| 2025-01-07 | -20,189 | -11,746 |
| 2024-12-31 | -8,443 | -10,754 |
| 2024-12-24 | +2,311 | -3,650 |
| 2024-12-17 | +5,961 | -19,791 |
| 2024-12-10 | +25,752 | +23,418 |
| 2024-12-03 | +2,334 | +24,967 |
| 2024-11-26 | -22,633 | +24,235 |
| 2024-11-19 | -46,868 | +18,034 |
| 2024-11-12 | -64,902 | -20,735 |
| 2024-11-05 | -44,167 | -19,350 |
| 2024-10-29 | -24,817 | -37,588 |
| 2024-10-22 | +12,771 | -21,339 |
| 2024-10-15 | +34,110 | -2,418 |
| 2024-10-08 | +36,528 | -20,244 |
| 2024-10-01 | +56,772 | -9,239 |
| 2024-09-24 | +66,011 | — |
Educational data reference, not investment advice. Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (public dataset).