New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is at a crowded long extreme. That is stored fuel for a downside squeeze, but crowding alone is never a reason to trade against it — in our testing, extremes without a change in direction simply persist. What converts fuel into a move is the weekly change flipping sign.
The weekly change is still moving in the same direction as the net position — the crowd is adding, not unwinding. Positioning that accelerates late is penalised: −1.45% over the following 8 weeks (t = −2.8) in our sample.
| Week | Net position | Change vs prior week |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | +10,518 | +4,286 |
| 2026-09-08 | +6,232 | +14,253 |
| 2026-09-01 | -8,021 | +6,218 |
| 2026-08-25 | -14,239 | +18,381 |
| 2026-08-18 | -32,620 | +6,966 |
| 2026-08-11 | -39,586 | +1,617 |
| 2026-08-04 | -41,203 | +6,465 |
| 2026-07-28 | -47,668 | +2,301 |
| 2026-07-21 | -49,969 | +12,797 |
| 2026-07-14 | -62,766 | +2,423 |
| 2026-07-07 | -65,189 | -1,909 |
| 2026-06-30 | -63,280 | -8,436 |
| 2026-06-23 | -54,844 | -9,683 |
| 2026-06-16 | -45,161 | -13,590 |
| 2026-06-09 | -31,571 | -3,325 |
| 2026-06-02 | -28,246 | +5,933 |
| 2026-05-26 | -34,179 | +6,434 |
| 2026-05-19 | -40,613 | -1,463 |
| 2026-05-12 | -39,150 | +9,101 |
| 2026-05-05 | -48,251 | -1,929 |
| 2026-04-28 | -46,322 | +2,132 |
| 2026-04-21 | -48,454 | -6,178 |
| 2026-04-14 | -42,276 | -6,201 |
| 2026-04-07 | -36,075 | -7,487 |
| 2026-03-31 | -28,588 | -1,582 |
| 2026-03-24 | -27,006 | -3,949 |
| 2026-03-17 | -23,057 | +14,054 |
| 2026-03-10 | -37,111 | -2,777 |
| 2026-03-03 | -34,334 | -4,767 |
| 2026-02-24 | -29,567 | +5,446 |
| 2026-02-17 | -35,013 | -94 |
| 2026-02-10 | -34,919 | -625 |
| 2026-02-03 | -34,294 | +13,451 |
| 2026-01-27 | -47,745 | +1,865 |
| 2026-01-20 | -49,610 | -759 |
| 2026-01-13 | -48,851 | -5,488 |
| 2026-01-06 | -43,363 | -109 |
| 2025-12-30 | -43,254 | +780 |
| 2025-12-23 | -44,034 | +4,009 |
| 2025-12-16 | -48,043 | +8,738 |
| 2025-12-09 | -56,781 | -3,665 |
| 2025-12-02 | -53,116 | -1,045 |
| 2025-11-25 | -52,071 | -2,814 |
| 2025-11-18 | -49,257 | -5,188 |
| 2025-11-10 | -44,069 | -6,657 |
| 2025-11-04 | -37,412 | -2,446 |
| 2025-10-28 | -34,966 | +1,309 |
| 2025-10-21 | -36,275 | -6,534 |
| 2025-10-14 | -29,741 | -5,318 |
| 2025-10-07 | -24,423 | -3,798 |
| 2025-09-30 | -20,625 | +495 |
| 2025-09-23 | -21,120 | -3,116 |
| 2025-09-16 | -18,004 | -9,261 |
| 2025-09-09 | -8,743 | -2,269 |
| 2025-09-02 | -6,474 | -369 |
| 2025-08-26 | -6,105 | -2,035 |
| 2025-08-19 | -4,070 | +617 |
| 2025-08-12 | -4,687 | +146 |
| 2025-08-05 | -4,833 | -2,742 |
| 2025-07-29 | -2,091 | +1,071 |
| 2025-07-22 | -3,162 | -6,797 |
| 2025-07-15 | +3,635 | -1,286 |
| 2025-07-08 | +4,921 | +771 |
| 2025-07-01 | +4,150 | +1,380 |
| 2025-06-24 | +2,770 | +4,043 |
| 2025-06-17 | -1,273 | +19,962 |
| 2025-06-10 | -21,235 | +2,439 |
| 2025-06-03 | -23,674 | +712 |
| 2025-05-27 | -24,386 | -734 |
| 2025-05-20 | -23,652 | -1,040 |
| 2025-05-13 | -22,612 | +523 |
| 2025-05-06 | -23,135 | -1,612 |
| 2025-04-29 | -21,523 | +5,372 |
| 2025-04-22 | -26,895 | +6,183 |
| 2025-04-15 | -33,078 | +6,074 |
| 2025-04-08 | -39,152 | +5,896 |
| 2025-04-01 | -45,048 | -3,481 |
| 2025-03-25 | -41,567 | -1,123 |
| 2025-03-18 | -40,444 | +12,487 |
| 2025-03-11 | -52,931 | +2,834 |
| 2025-03-04 | -55,765 | -2,056 |
| 2025-02-25 | -53,709 | -1,546 |
| 2025-02-18 | -52,163 | -2,827 |
| 2025-02-11 | -49,336 | -246 |
| 2025-02-04 | -49,090 | -2,059 |
| 2025-01-28 | -47,031 | +4,192 |
| 2025-01-21 | -51,223 | +866 |
| 2025-01-14 | -52,089 | +2,535 |
| 2025-01-07 | -54,624 | -6,309 |
| 2024-12-31 | -48,315 | -2,298 |
| 2024-12-24 | -46,017 | -3,510 |
| 2024-12-17 | -42,507 | -14,300 |
| 2024-12-10 | -28,207 | -4,899 |
| 2024-12-03 | -23,308 | +1,073 |
| 2024-11-26 | -24,381 | -5,943 |
| 2024-11-19 | -18,438 | -6,778 |
| 2024-11-12 | -11,660 | -3,461 |
| 2024-11-05 | -8,199 | -6,032 |
| 2024-10-29 | -2,167 | -1,844 |
| 2024-10-22 | -323 | -31 |
| 2024-10-15 | -292 | -1,573 |
| 2024-10-08 | +1,281 | -689 |
| 2024-10-01 | +1,970 | +3,428 |
| 2024-09-24 | -1,458 | — |
Educational data reference, not investment advice. Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (public dataset).