黄金 XAU 位于 52 周区间的中部。两个方向都没有储备的挤压燃料 —— 此处的持仓是背景,不是信号。
Δ 已与净持仓反向 —— 这群人本周开始回补了。这个翻转(而不是持仓的大小)才是我们检验过的数据里最接近"点火信号"的东西(Idx ≤10 且 Δ 翻正,其后一周约 61% 命中)。
| 周次 | 净持仓 | 较上周变化 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | +230,338 | -1,622 |
| 2026-09-08 | +231,960 | +3,836 |
| 2026-09-01 | +228,124 | -15,210 |
| 2026-08-25 | +243,334 | +21,145 |
| 2026-08-18 | +222,189 | +4,249 |
| 2026-08-11 | +217,940 | +20,306 |
| 2026-08-04 | +197,634 | +15,564 |
| 2026-07-28 | +182,070 | -1,840 |
| 2026-07-21 | +183,910 | -2,772 |
| 2026-07-14 | +186,682 | -7,564 |
| 2026-07-07 | +194,246 | +227 |
| 2026-06-30 | +194,019 | +12,680 |
| 2026-06-23 | +181,339 | +1,119 |
| 2026-06-16 | +180,220 | +6,383 |
| 2026-06-09 | +173,837 | -2,183 |
| 2026-06-02 | +176,020 | +21,760 |
| 2026-05-26 | +154,260 | -5,573 |
| 2026-05-19 | +159,833 | -11,789 |
| 2026-05-12 | +171,622 | +8,319 |
| 2026-05-05 | +163,303 | +3,732 |
| 2026-04-28 | +159,571 | -4,435 |
| 2026-04-21 | +164,006 | +1,480 |
| 2026-04-14 | +162,526 | +6,221 |
| 2026-04-07 | +156,305 | -6,897 |
| 2026-03-31 | +163,202 | -5,125 |
| 2026-03-24 | +168,327 | +8,458 |
| 2026-03-17 | +159,869 | -3,263 |
| 2026-03-10 | +163,132 | +2,987 |
| 2026-03-03 | +160,145 | +968 |
| 2026-02-24 | +159,177 | -738 |
| 2026-02-17 | +159,915 | -97 |
| 2026-02-10 | +160,012 | -5,592 |
| 2026-02-03 | +165,604 | -39,792 |
| 2026-01-27 | +205,396 | -39,374 |
| 2026-01-20 | +244,770 | -6,468 |
| 2026-01-13 | +251,238 | +23,606 |
| 2026-01-06 | +227,632 | -3,541 |
| 2025-12-30 | +231,173 | -9,527 |
| 2025-12-23 | +240,700 | +6,722 |
| 2025-12-16 | +233,978 | +10,092 |
| 2025-12-09 | +223,886 | +6,326 |
| 2025-12-02 | +217,560 | +12,972 |
| 2025-11-25 | +204,588 | -5,751 |
| 2025-11-18 | +210,339 | +3,270 |
| 2025-11-10 | +207,069 | +4,762 |
| 2025-11-04 | +202,307 | -2,357 |
| 2025-10-28 | +204,664 | +28,055 |
| 2025-10-21 | +176,609 | -27,307 |
| 2025-10-14 | +203,916 | -28,040 |
| 2025-10-07 | +231,956 | -20,952 |
| 2025-09-30 | +252,908 | -13,841 |
| 2025-09-23 | +266,749 | +339 |
| 2025-09-16 | +266,410 | +4,670 |
| 2025-09-09 | +261,740 | +12,210 |
| 2025-09-02 | +249,530 | +35,219 |
| 2025-08-26 | +214,311 | +1,721 |
| 2025-08-19 | +212,590 | -16,895 |
| 2025-08-12 | +229,485 | -7,565 |
| 2025-08-05 | +237,050 | +13,454 |
| 2025-07-29 | +223,596 | -29,442 |
| 2025-07-22 | +253,038 | +39,923 |
| 2025-07-15 | +213,115 | +10,147 |
| 2025-07-08 | +202,968 | +988 |
| 2025-07-01 | +201,980 | +6,976 |
| 2025-06-24 | +195,004 | -5,644 |
| 2025-06-17 | +200,648 | +13,167 |
| 2025-06-10 | +187,481 | -424 |
| 2025-06-03 | +187,905 | +13,721 |
| 2025-05-27 | +174,184 | +10,203 |
| 2025-05-20 | +163,981 | +2,772 |
| 2025-05-13 | +161,209 | -1,288 |
| 2025-05-06 | +162,497 | -821 |
| 2025-04-29 | +163,318 | -12,060 |
| 2025-04-22 | +175,378 | -26,832 |
| 2025-04-15 | +202,210 | +1,495 |
| 2025-04-08 | +200,715 | -37,719 |
| 2025-04-01 | +238,434 | -11,362 |
| 2025-03-25 | +249,796 | -8,136 |
| 2025-03-18 | +257,932 | +21,832 |
| 2025-03-11 | +236,100 | -7,161 |
| 2025-03-04 | +243,261 | -18,364 |
| 2025-02-25 | +261,625 | -7,049 |
| 2025-02-18 | +268,674 | -15,830 |
| 2025-02-11 | +284,504 | -18,004 |
| 2025-02-04 | +302,508 | +3,099 |
| 2025-01-28 | +299,409 | -1,375 |
| 2025-01-21 | +300,784 | +21,421 |
| 2025-01-14 | +279,363 | +24,452 |
| 2025-01-07 | +254,911 | +7,632 |
| 2024-12-31 | +247,279 | -350 |
| 2024-12-24 | +247,629 | -14,412 |
| 2024-12-17 | +262,041 | -13,545 |
| 2024-12-10 | +275,586 | +15,850 |
| 2024-12-03 | +259,736 | +9,398 |
| 2024-11-26 | +250,338 | +15,971 |
| 2024-11-19 | +234,367 | -2,084 |
| 2024-11-12 | +236,451 | -18,878 |
| 2024-11-05 | +255,329 | -23,324 |
| 2024-10-29 | +278,653 | -17,551 |
| 2024-10-22 | +296,204 | +9,770 |
| 2024-10-15 | +286,434 | +8,254 |
| 2024-10-08 | +278,180 | -21,751 |
| 2024-10-01 | +299,931 | -15,459 |
| 2024-09-24 | +315,390 | — |
数据参考资料,不构成投资建议。数据源:CFTC Commitments of Traders 公开数据集。